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A Simple Method of Estimating Prognosis

Ellsworth C. Alvord, Jr., MD; John D. Loeser, MD; Walter L. Bailey, MD; Michael K. Copass, MD

Arch Neurol. 1972;27(4):273-284.

Abstract
In an attempt to define the natural history of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage due to ruptured intracranial aneurysms, we have constructed a table of probabilities of future survival based on two clinical observations: (1) duration of past survival from either the first or the last subarachnoid hemorrhage, and (2) the clinical status (grade) of the patient at this point in time. Using this table, we have been able to predict the number and percentage of survivors in practically every reported series regardless of the method of treatment, the site of the aneurysm, or the percentage death rate actually observed. The simplicity of the method, which compares each individual patient with his own matched, theoretical control, allows any physician to evaluate his own groups of patients treated in different ways.

Author Affiliations
Seattle

From the departments of pathology (Dr. Alvord), neurological surgery (Drs. Loeser and Bailey), and medicine (Dr. Copass), University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle.

Footnotes
Accepted for publication April 10, 1972.

Reprint requests to Mail Stop SK-20, University of Washington, Seattle 98195 (Dr. Alvord).

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